The Nifty 50 surged by more than 1 per cent during morning trading on Monday, January 29, setting a positive tone for the start of the week. This week is poised to witness two significant events—the Interim Budget 2024 and the US Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
The market may see some volatility ahead of these events even though experts believe these two events may not have a major impact on the market sentiment as the Budget is not likely to make big announcements and the US Fed is expected to maintain a status quo on interest rates.
"Two important events are due this week: the interim Budget on 01-02-2024 and the Fed meeting on rate decision on 02-02-2024. But these events are unlikely to impact the market in a big way. The Budget will be a vote on account without major announcements capable of impacting the market. Regarding the Fed decision, no rate cut is expected, but the commentary will be keenly watched,"
"For the week, we expect Nifty 50 to trade in the range of 21,700-20,900 with a negative bias
"The weekly strength indicator RSI and momentum oscillator Stochastic have both turned negative and are below their respective reference lines, indicating a profit booking,
According waveaedvisory, the chart pattern suggests that if Nifty 50 crosses and sustains above the 21,500 level, it would witness buying, leading it towards 21,600-21,700 levels. However, if the index breaks below the 21,250 level, it would witness selling, taking it towards 21,000-20,900. As per wave theory we are currently in wave 4. the index might further retrace till 20900 - 20868, 38.2% fib ratio.
We believe that Nifty 50 may trade with a negative bias for the week.
Exhibit - Elliott wave view on Nifty 50 Index, Daily range
